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2019年度《互聯網趨勢報告》發布(附原文下載)

  6月12日凌晨,“互聯網女皇”瑪麗·米克爾(Mary Meeker)如期發布2019年度《互聯網趨勢報告》。

  在這篇長達334頁的PPT中,米克爾快速回顧了去年互聯網發展中的每一個重要趨勢,并展望了未來一年的互聯網發展預期。其中談到了從美國互聯網廣告支出加速增長到拉美數字交付服務增長等方方面面。此外報告還特別介紹了中國互聯網。

  

  以下是其報告摘要:

  新用戶獲取難度加大

  2018年,全球約有51%的人(38億人)是互聯網用戶,高于2017年的49%(36億人)。由于上網人數眾多,新用戶獲得難度加大,2018年增長放緩至6%左右。智能手機是全球許多用戶的主要互聯網接入點,和上網用戶太多一樣,智能手機的銷量增長也正在下降。

  

  

  科技企業仍然強大

  截至上周,全球市值最高的10家公司中,有7家是科技公司,只有伯克希爾·哈撒韋(Berkshire Hathaway)、Visa和強生(Johnson & Johnson)這三家非科技公司躋身前十:

  它們依次是微軟、亞馬遜、蘋果、谷歌母公司Alphabet、伯克希爾·哈撒韋公司、Facebook、阿里巴巴、騰訊、Visa、強生公司。

  前30大互聯網公司中,美國占了18家,而中國占了7家。

  

  

  全球互聯網頭部公司營收增長放緩,一季度同比增11%。

  

  美國電商和廣告穩健增長

  目前電子商務占零售總額的15%,增長有所放緩,第一季度同比增長12.4%,但仍高于普通零售業務的增長,后者第一季度同比僅增長2%。

  

  美國互聯網廣告支出加速增長,去年增長22%。大部分支出仍花在谷歌和Facebook上,但亞馬遜和Twitter等公司的市場份額正在增長。其中大約62%的數字顯示廣告支出是用于程序化廣告,這一比例還將繼續增長。

  

  ◆獲客成本正在上升,而這一現狀不可持續。因為在某些情況下,其超過了這些客戶將帶來的長期收入。米克爾建議用諸如免費試用和免費會員等更廉價的方式來獲取客戶。

  

  看一看美國以外的創新

  美國以外的科技公司創新依然強勁。主流領域包括物流、投遞和支付。

  

  

  新趨勢:圖片社交和互動游戲

  隨著更快Wi-Fi和更好手機攝像頭等技術的發展,人們更頻繁地使用圖像來進行交流。與過去的純文本相比,目前超過50%的推文與圖片、視頻或其他媒介有關。

  去年,隨著像《堡壘之夜》Fortnite等互動游戲成為某些用戶新的社交媒體,全球互動游戲玩家的數量增長了6%至24億。觀看這些游戲的人數也在不斷增加。

  如何監管社交媒體

  互聯網將變得更像一個污水池:清楚問題內容將變得更加困難,而互聯網通信的本質使得這些內容更容易被放大傳播,由此產生了一些問題:42%的美國青少年在網上經歷過攻擊性的辱罵,YouTube等網站上激進主義橫行,而社交媒體助長了兩極分化。

  客觀上人們更愛看到負面新聞,而社交媒體、圖片視頻以及用戶習慣算法導致不良內容更加迅速地傳播。

  美國人花在數字媒體上的時間比以往任何時候更多:2018年為每天6.3小時,同比增長7%。大部分增長來自移動端和其他連接設備,花在電腦上的時間減少了。人們也越來越擔心上網時間的不斷增長,超過四分之一的美國成年人說他們“幾乎一直在線”。

  

  隱私現在是個大問題

  定向廣告還面臨歐盟GDPR《通用數據保護條例》法案影響以及其他監管方面的許多問題,而蘋果和Facebook等軟硬件公司也在推動用戶隱私保護。

  隨著隱私成為更大賣點,用戶期待于有更多的選擇讓在線通信更加安全。今年一季度,全球87%的網絡流量處于加密狀態,高于三年前的53%。

  

  

  其他

  在25家最有價值的科技公司中,60%是由美國第一代或第二代移民創辦的。去年這些公司一共雇傭了190萬人。新的更嚴格的移民法案可能會對科技行業產生負面影響,或許會阻止下一個埃隆·馬斯克(Elon Musk)前往美國。

  醫療保健正穩步走向數字化,期待有更多的遠程醫療和按需咨詢服務。

  

  中國互聯網發展如何?

  

  2018年,中國移動互聯網用戶已達到8.2億,移動互聯網數據流量同比增長189%,其中,短視頻對中國互聯網流量和使用時長的增長功不可沒。

  線上游戲正日益改變著中國的支付、電商、零售、教育以及更多行業,通過游戲化和數字化為傳統行業賦能的新模式正在重構人們的消費體驗。

  以微信為代表的及時通訊軟件,通過小程序等形式大大促進了產品交易與服務的創新發展;電子商務的持續發展使得部分單一功能APP進化為集多種功能于一身的超級APP,用戶活躍度和交易頻次得到進一步提升。

  從線上到線下,再到全渠道的零售創新重構了消費者的購物體驗,“新零售”賦予傳統零售行業以嶄新的生機和活力。

  教育和政府服務向線上延伸,逐步實現線上線下一體化。

  關于互聯網女皇報告

  1995年,瑪麗·米克爾與同事克里斯·德普開始發布《互聯網報告》。這份報告被投資者視為互聯網領域的投資圣經,并且成書公開發行,在整個科技行業引發了巨大反響。

  互聯網女皇報告幾乎成為當時每個互聯網創業者的必讀報告,且無異于選股指南。她向投資者推薦的美國在線、戴爾、亞馬遜、eBay等公司股票,都很快帶來了超過十倍的投資回報。

  以下為報告原文(節選):點此下載報告

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責任編輯:張薇

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