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《新技術應用及其影響(2019)》發布

  技術進步是經濟長期持續增長的源泉。習近平總書記曾指出:“縱觀工業革命以來的世界歷史,每一次科學技術的大飛躍都推動了經濟社會的大發展”,“我們正處在新一輪科技革命和產業變革蓄勢待發的時期,以互聯網、大數據、人工智能為代表的新一代信息技術日新月異。”當前,物理世界和數字世界加速融合,產業互聯網孕育興起,各行各業開始“在云端用人工智能處理大數據”,以數字化、網絡化、智能化為特征的數字經濟風起云涌,其勢浩蕩,“對國際政治、經濟、文化、社會、生態、軍事等領域發展產生了深刻影響”。

  為更好引領和適應技術創新,習近平總書記在二十國集團領導人第十三次峰會講話中提出重要倡議:“建議二十國集團將‘新技術應用及其影響’作為一項重點工作深入研究,認真探索合作思路和舉措。” 2019新年伊始,聯合國秘書長古特雷斯在聯大講話中指出,新技術應用,與應對氣候變化、推進可持續發展一道成為2019年聯合國的關鍵行動領域。秉持科技向善的理念,深入研究新技術應用及其影響,對于不斷滿足人民日益增長的美好生活需要,促進社會公平正義,構建人類命運共同體具有重要意義。

  基于新技術應用及其影響,騰訊研究院近期推出了《新技術應用及其影響(2019)》報告。本報告重點研究了數字鴻溝、勞動就業、GDP核算、安全隱私、科技倫理、經濟理論、政府監管等七個方面。期待未來有更多機構從更多元化的視角進行更加深入的研究。

  目錄

  01 彌合數字鴻溝,釋放數字紅利

  相較其它技術,數字技術是一種更為普惠的技術。我們必須充分利用技術迅速變革這一契機,建設更為繁榮與包容的世界。雖然已取得重大進步,但還有許多無法利用數字技術的人被拋在后面。

  世界銀行集團行長金墉指出:“有史以來信息通信的最大飛躍,只有惠及全球所有人,才具有真正的革命意義。”提高數字經濟的參與度,將為消費者和企業家創造更多可能性。在提升數字競爭力的同時,我們要兼顧公平,彌合數字鴻溝,讓整個國家和地區共享數字紅利,實現可持續發展。

  02 數字技術促進就業的結構性變革

  就業是最大的民生。讓每個人有體面的工作,是最大的“善舉”。技術進步對就業具有雙重影響,它會帶來新的工作機會,也會替代一些原有崗位,帶來所謂的“技術性失業”。每次技術變革都會引發人們對就業問題的激烈爭論。人類過往的實踐表明,技術進步并沒有導致長期的大規模失業,它帶來的新增就業機會要遠多于其替代的就業機會,技術革命中的失業工人最終都找到了工作,但也經歷了混亂和痛苦的調整過程。而且新技術對各類人群影響不一。人們需要變革教育培訓和社保制度,不斷提高數字素養和數字化生存能力。

  03 數字經濟發展挑戰GDP核算體系

  GDP(國內生產總值)被譽為“20世紀偉大的發明之一”,是針對工業經濟設計的用來指導宏觀經濟運行和進行宏觀調控的最佳指標。然而,在數字經濟時代GDP則力不從心。由于GDP僅以市場價格記錄交易,它完全無視人們可能獲得的免費服務。互聯網上的各種免費服務觸手可及,但不被統計。近年興起的自助服務也一樣,如銀行ATM機、自助點餐、無人超市等,它使消費者變成“生產者”,但其價值不被核算。另外,技術進步和創新挑戰價格統計,分享經濟對GDP統計方法也帶來挑戰。

  04 重視網絡安全,加強用戶隱私保護

  “沒有網絡安全,就沒有國家安全。”當前,世界范圍內非傳統安全問題凸顯,網絡信息安全威脅持續呈高發態勢,網絡攻擊、網絡犯罪、隱私泄露等各類安全問題更加突出,網絡安全成為事關世界各國和地區安全的重要問題。用戶數據泄露也給國家安全帶來影響。由于數據中蘊藏著價值,包含著重要的信息,數據的不當利用將給人們帶來重大損害。我們需要確保數據安全,把用戶隱私保護置于發展數字經濟的重要位置。

  05 加強科技倫理建設,匯聚起向上向善的強大力量

  隨著人工智能和機器人成為我們的仆人、伙伴和同事,我們需要處理日益復雜的情況,以及可能引發的安全問題。要避免人工智能技術創新治理陷入“科林格里奇困境”,就必須預先研判,提前布局。盡管人們對人工智能未來將走向何方眾說紛紜,但對人工智能加以倫理規制,已經成為基本共識。人類社會需要在其發展的所有階段積極主動地考慮新技術的倫理道德、法律體系和社會影響,而不是采取自由放任的做法和事后應對挑戰。這需要政府、企業、學術界和民間社會相互合作,促進指導研究和創新的倫理道德標準以及法律體系。

  06 數字經濟時代呼喚經濟理論的創新

  傳統經濟理論主要建立在農業經濟、工業經濟基礎之上,以物質產品和服務為研究對象。進入數字經濟時代,數字產品逐漸成為主要的商品形式。數字產品具有網絡外部性,產品對消費者的價值隨著其他使用者數量增加而增加。數字經濟對現有經濟理論的挑戰是全方位的,正如中國社會科學院原副院長李揚所言:“目前,全世界有大量經濟學者在研究互聯網問題,雖然革命性的成果尚未推出,但大家一致同意,由于互聯網的發展,全部經濟學都應當重寫。”

  07 數字經濟發展挑戰監管體制

  作為一種新生事物,數字經濟具有一系列不同于工業經濟的新特征和新問題,它為政府監管提供了新的技術手段,也對傳統監管體系帶來了新的挑戰,提出了更高的要求。數字經濟發展挑戰屬地管理模式,亟需調整央地監管關系;挑戰行業管理模式,跨部門聯合監管成為重要趨勢;挑戰準入管理模式,對事中事后管理提出更高要求。面對數字經濟帶來的新機遇和新挑戰,需要以包容審慎的政策措施來積極推動發展,更需要調整政府監管體制,著力構建更加一體化、法治化、信息化的數字經濟監管體制。

  以下為報告原文:(點擊下載報告

責任編輯:陳近梅

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